Thought Leadership - What's Next For Transatlantic Trade?

What's Next for Transatlantic Trade? Five Strategies for Success in the Second Half of 2026
By: Matt Lavoie Director, Government Affairs

In the face of ongoing tariff uncertainty and rising costs, a major question stands out for American small and mid-sized businesses. What region represents the strongest appetite for international growth? Europe is the answer, and this finding is a key component of the DHL Express U.S. 2026 Mid-Year SME Survey, which gathered insights from more than 400 U.S. small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) decision-makers. While many companies are reassessing their international strategies, the data also shows that organizations are adapting by investing in trade compliance, more resilient supply chains, and technology.

For members of the European American Chamber of Commerce of Greater Cincinnati, these findings reinforce an important message: the U.S.-Europe trade relationship remains one of the world's most valuable business corridors. Success in today's environment isn't about waiting for certainty. It's about preparing your business to navigate change.

1. Treat Tariffs as a Planning Challenge, Not a Reason to Pause, or Worse, Retreat
Under the Trump Administration, trade policy and tariff policy are essentially one and the same. These tariffs evolve based on diplomatic relations, court decisions, and seemingly sometimes on a day-to-day basis. They are a critical concern for importers and exporters. Thirty-five percent of respondents in the DHL Express survey label duties and accompanying regulatory issues as the largest barrier to international growth.

More than half of surveyed businesses (53%) said tariffs have forced a delay or reconsideration of international expansion plans this year, while 42% said they do not plan to enter new international markets during the second half of 2026.

While the overall trade environment performs as a wet blanket for growth, for organizations capable of expanding, Europe remains the number one international market, ahead of Canada and Asia. The data suggests businesses aren't losing confidence in Europe; they're just becoming more disciplined and strategic about how they enter and grow within the market.

In the near term, the policy trampoline will keep bouncing. Don’t wait for that to settle. Companies ought to put resources behind strengthening customs documentation, reviewing product classifications, and buttoning up the back end of their international shipping compliance. In other words, control what you can and build strategies so you may pounce on opportunity when it presents itself. And in doing so, you’ll create opportunities by standing out amongst both peers and competitors.

2. Build More Resilient Supply Chains
It’s no shock that operating costs are up, thanks to the current environment. Nearly 80% of American SMEs surveyed said tariffs and trade restrictions confirmed this, and nearly half of those have costs up at least 10%. This requires higher prices, passing costs along to consumers.

With these harsh realities, it’s also no surprise that reducing operational costs is now the top business priority for the remainder of 2026, cited by 35% of survey respondents.

Supply chain strategy heavily focused upon utilizing European suppliers or customers has stretched well beyond an operational function to a competitive advantage. Reviewing transportation routes, diversifying suppliers where appropriate, improving shipment visibility, and working with experienced logistics partners can help reduce disruption while protecting margins.

In today's environment, logistics decisions have become business decisions.

3. Stay Ahead of Compliance Requirements
Doing business in Europe has always required careful attention to regulatory requirements, but compliance complexities intensify.
From customs documentation and product standards to sustainability-related reporting requirements and digital trade documentation, companies need processes that help them stay compliant while minimizing delays.

For EEAC members, staying informed about regulatory developments across both the U.S. and Europe will continue to be a critical competitive advantage.

4. Use Technology to Simplify International Trade
Since our species began rules-based trade around stones, tools, and hides, technology has upended the system. The invention of the wheel revolutionized the marketplace, and that continues to this day. AI and automation are the new wheels. These tools, if used well, are your friends in helping your businesses streamline customs documentation, improve shipment visibility, estimate duties, and reduce manual processes that consume valuable time and resources. Yet, despite the growing availability, many SMEs have yet to fully embrace these technologies.

Forty-three percent of SMEs are not using AI at all, while only 7% identified AI and automation as a top investment priority for the second half of 2026.

This presents a significant opportunity. Companies embracing digital tools today, and working with logistics providers who also embrace these tools, free their teams for strategic growth tomorrow.

5. Continue Investing in European Relationships
Uncertainty can cause sheltering-in-place to look safe, like the best option. While that may be appropriate in some cases, it's important not to lose momentum with existing customers, distributors, and business partners.

Strong international relationships are a long game, built over years, not quarters. Stay visible, engaged, and available to preserve opportunity now and for easier days ahead.

And don’t sleep on sustainability. While the U.S. political environment may drive only 27% of U.S. SMEs surveyed to rank reduction of their carbon footprint as "very important," European customers, procurement teams, and regulators place significant emphasis on sustainability. Companies demonstrating similar commitments may be better positioned to compete for business in European markets.

Looking Ahead
The second half of 2026 will continue to present challenges for companies engaged in international trade. Tariffs, regulatory changes, and cost pressures are here for the next two years, minimum.

There’s no way around the fact that it's tough out there. But pessimism doesn’t only limit your outlook, it reduces your results. And we’re happy to see that the DHL Express U.S. Mid-Year SME Survey demonstrates that American businesses continue to see tremendous opportunity in Europe.